Bold claim: 2026’s box office crown might already be spoken for, and the real challenger isn’t who you’d expect. Hollywood is loading up a blockbuster-heavy slate, with familiar franchises and bold new visions all bidding for a summer that could redefine post-pandemic attendance. The big question isn’t whether there will be a monster hit, but which film will claim the title of highest-grossing of 2026—and the answer could surprise you.
Alex, ScreenRant’s Senior Movies Editor, helms the New Movies team and is among the site’s Rotten Tomatoes-approved critics. A Brown University English graduate, he spent a year in Scotland earning a Master’s in Film Studies from the University of Edinburgh, a city he jokes is lively and worth exploring. He now lives and works from Milan, Italy, conveniently close to the Venice Film Festival, which he first covered for SR in 2024.
While 2025 didn’t deliver the blockbuster numbers some hoped for, there are clear reasons to feel optimistic about 2026. The calendar is packed with potential tentpoles, especially during a crowded summer season. Iconic franchises—Star Wars, Toy Story, and Spider-Man—return to theaters, while Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Steven Spielberg’s big-budget sci-fi return are already generating buzz. Greta Gerwig’s take on Narnia is slated for IMAX screens over Thanksgiving, and Dune: Part 3 will open on the same day as Avengers: Doomsday in December, intensifying the year-end showdown.
But can a post-COVID era sustain a truly record-breaking year? We’re closing in on the end of 2025, with Zootopia 2 poised to become Hollywood’s second $1 billion grosser, and Avatar: Fire & Ash poised to join the same elite club. Several 2026 releases would have been strong contenders for crossing that milestone before the pandemic, yet the real test is whether there’s room for multiple juggernauts to thrive on the same scale. Pinning down which film will top the year feels nearly impossible—until early tracking data starts to tilt the scales.
Toy Story 5 appears to be the frontrunner for 2026’s biggest movie. Greenlight Analytics regularly surveys 2,000 people about upcoming releases to gauge awareness and interest as marketing unfolds. Among 72 titles in the latest batch, Avatar: Fire & Ash leads in awareness at 73% after its trailer dropped, with Toy Story 5 close behind at 59%. Animation and family films typically average around 40% at this distance from release, so Toy Story 5’s numbers are notably strong.
Even more compelling is the theater appeal score for Toy Story 5: 51% of respondents say they’d rather see it in theaters than at home, the highest among all 72 titles. Avatar: Fire & Ash sits at 49%, underscoring the potential advantage of a premium cinematic experience for a tentpole animation film. While these numbers don’t guarantee a $2 billion global haul, they point to Toy Story 5 as a formidable force in 2026’s box office landscape.
The competition is stiff. Spielberg’s new sci‑fi project opens the week before Toy Story 5, with Supergirl launching the following week and Minions 3 arriving a week later. That lineup ensures Toy Story 5 faces serious rivalries, but the current tracking suggests it could be the title to beat.
Historically, Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4 both surpassed $1 billion worldwide, and the expectation now is that Toy Story 5 will join that elite club. Yet Inside Out 2’s record-breaking $1.6 billion could offer a more ambitious benchmark for comparison. If the latter proves a closer match, we might witness a new all-time high for an American animated feature, potentially cementing Woody and Buzz at the pinnacle of a remarkable year.
Release Date: June 19, 2026
Director: Andrew Stanton
Writers: Andrew Stanton
Key Cast: Woody (voice) — Tim Allen; Buzz Lightyear (voice); Jessie (voice); Combat Carl (voice)
If you’re curious about how these predictions evolve, keep an eye on early tracking, marketing shifts, and opening-weekend performance. The landscape of 2026’s box office could hinge on a few savvy releases, surprising early buzz, and how well audiences respond to nostalgia blended with fresh storytelling.
What’s your take: do you think Toy Story 5 can defy expectations and become the year’s top earner, or will another blockbuster surge ahead with unprecedented momentum? Share your thoughts in the comments.
